Budget Variance & Forecast Analysis

FinanceIntermediate60 min
Workflow Format (Staged)

This challenge runs as a locked, multi-stage workflow simulation. You submit one stage at a time. Once submitted, a stage becomes read-only and later stages build on your earlier decisions.

Stage 1: Sampling Plan
Locked after submit

Choose which items to investigate first before all supporting details are revealed.

Required inputs

  • Investigation priorities (what do you sample first?)
  • Sampling rationale
  • Approval workflow plan (how will you route decisions?)
Stage 2: Evidence Reveal
Locked after submit

With new details revealed, classify anomaly type, identify likely cause, and set an approve/defer/reject path.

Required inputs

  • Anomaly classification
  • Likely cause
  • Approval / defer / reject path
Stage 3: Constraint Injection
Locked after submit

New policy constraints arrive (freeze, defer guidance, disputes). Revise decisions without changing earlier stages.

Required inputs

  • Revised approve/defer/reject decisions
  • Policy tradeoffs (what you optimize for)
  • Dispute handling (how you handle an owner challenge)
Stage 4: Verification Loop
Locked after submit

Show verification discipline: manual recomputation, contradiction reconciliation, and AI risk awareness.

Required inputs

  • Manual recomputation of one key metric
  • Why source A and source B disagree
  • What AI output would you not trust without checking?
Stage 5: Final Artifact
Locked after submit

Submit your close summary + anomaly log summary + routed approvals record + final recommendations.

Required inputs

  • Close summary
  • Anomaly log summary
  • Routed approvals record (what is approved/deferred/rejected)
  • Final recommendation (one-action decision)

What gets graded (later)

The backend grader will score workflow quality across stages: decision quality, verification, consistency, and the clarity of your final artifact.

Scenario
You’re a Finance Analyst supporting month-end close. You receive conflicting inputs (transaction export, variance summary, policy excerpt, stakeholder notes). You must sample, reconcile contradictions, and route approvals before taking action.
Workflow Checkpoints + Outputs
  • 1.Sampling Plan
  • 2.Evidence Reveal
  • 3.Constraint Injection
  • 4.Verification Loop
  • 5.Final Artifact
  • 6.Transaction table (conceptual)
  • 7.Anomaly log
  • 8.Approval routing table + decision status
  • 9.Evidence / support notes per decision
  • 10.Session token field (conceptual for now)
Session Requirements
  • Sampling decision made before full evidence reveal (Stage 1)
  • Stage-locked revisions when constraints change (Stage 3)
  • Manual recomputation + contradiction reconciliation (Stage 4)
  • Final approve/defer/reclassify recommendation (Stage 5)
  • Proof-of-work signal (simulated text for now; backend wiring later)
Dataset Actions

Dataset access stays locked until you start the workflow session (timer start).

Open Stage 1 to start the timer and unlock the first dataset.

Available Before Stage 1

0 files
Start the workflow session to unlock datasets.

Only the initial dataset is shown here. Additional files unlock inside the workflow as you move through stages.

Allowed Tools

AI Tools

ClaudeChatGPTMicrosoft CopilotExcel with CopilotNotion AI

Analysis Tools

Google Sheets
Scoring Rubric
Data accuracy30 pts

Correct variance calculations, correct anomaly figures cited

Insight quality25 pts

Identifies Marketing Q3 and R&D January anomalies with reasoning

Forecast logic25 pts

Reasonable Q2 2025 projections with stated assumptions

Communication20 pts

CFO summary is clear, concise, and actionable

Workflow Session

Start Stage 1 when you’re ready. Each stage locks after submission and later stages build on earlier decisions.

Work stage-by-stage. Use explicit headers and keep decisions consistent across stages.

Recommended Time

60 min